FOI - Notting Hill Carnival (1) [Sep 2026]

I am making this request under the Freedom of Information Act 2000 (“FOIA”), specifically section 1(1), concerning the Greater London Authority's repeated public statements that Notting Hill Carnival generates approximately £396 million of economic benefit or economic activity for London.

I am seeking the recorded information held by the GLA which supports, substantiates or explains this figure.

This is not a request for an opinion from the Mayor, nor am I asking the GLA to undertake a new economic analysis. I am requesting existing recorded information, including the underlying research, calculations, assumptions, datasets, spreadsheets, reports, briefing documents and correspondence which the GLA holds and has relied upon in presenting the £396 million figure as an economic benefit to London.

Public statements giving rise to this request

The £396 million figure has been publicly adopted and repeated by the Mayor and the GLA, including:

1. MQT reference 2025/3224 (September 2025), where the Mayor's published response states that research commissioned by The Voice indicated a “total direct or net economic impact” of over £396 million annually.
2. MQT reference 2025/2065 (July 2025), where the Mayor's response states that Notting Hill Carnival is “generating an estimated £396 million in economic activity”.
3. The Mayor's City Hall announcement of March 2026, concerning additional funding for Notting Hill Carnival, which states that Carnival “boosts the economy by nearly £400m” and quotes the Mayor as saying that it is “boosting our economy by nearly £400m each year”.

These statements appear to present the £396 million figure as an established economic benefit to London, rather than merely reporting an unverified claim made by a third party.

Information requested

Please provide the following recorded information held by the GLA:

1. Underlying research

A copy of the complete research report, study or analysis on which the £396 million figure is based, including any appendices, technical notes or methodology documents.

If the GLA does not hold the complete report, please provide the version or copies of the material that the GLA does hold.

2. Calculation of the £396 million

Please provide any spreadsheets, models, datasets, calculations, working papers or other recorded information showing how the £396 million figure was derived.

In particular, I am seeking the recorded figures used for:

• visitor numbers;
• international visitors;
• UK visitors;
• London residents;
• average expenditure per visitor;
• accommodation;
• food and drink;
• retail;
• entertainment;
• transport;
• other expenditure categories;
• any multiplier applied.

3. Meaning of “economic benefit”

Please provide any recorded information held by the GLA defining what the £396 million represents.

In particular, please provide any documentation establishing whether the figure represents:

• gross visitor expenditure;
• economic output;
• Gross Value Added (GVA);
• direct economic impact;
• net economic impact;
• additional economic activity; or
• another economic measure.

4. Additionality and displacement

Please provide any recorded information concerning the extent to which the calculation accounts for additionality or displacement.

For example:

• expenditure by London residents at Carnival which would otherwise have been spent elsewhere in London;
• expenditure by UK visitors which would otherwise have occurred elsewhere in the UK;
• international visitors who would have visited London during the August Bank Holiday weekend irrespective of whether Carnival took place;
• expenditure which has merely been displaced from other London businesses to businesses operating within or around Carnival.

Please provide any assumptions, percentages, calculations or modelling relating to these issues.

5. International tourism

The published material associated with the £396 million figure refers to approximately 160,000 international tourists.

Please provide any recorded information held by the GLA showing:

• how this figure was established;
• how many international visitors were considered to have travelled to London specifically because of Carnival;
• how many would have visited London regardless of Carnival;
• the assumed expenditure per international visitor;
• the assumed length of stay; and
• the resulting economic contribution attributed specifically to Carnival-related international tourism.

6. Economic multipliers

Please provide any recorded information identifying:

• whether an economic multiplier was used;
• the value of the multiplier;
• the source or methodology used to select it;
• the expenditure figure to which it was applied; and
• any sensitivity analysis or alternative calculations considered.

7. Costs associated with Carnival

Please provide any recorded economic-impact or cost-benefit analysis held by the GLA which considers the costs associated with staging Carnival, including:

• Metropolitan Police costs;
• stewarding;
• crowd-management measures;
• barriers and security infrastructure;
• local-authority expenditure;
• street cleansing and waste removal;
• emergency services;
• transport-related costs;
• public funding and grants;
• any other public expenditure attributable to Carnival.

I am not asking the GLA to calculate costs that it does not hold. I am asking for any existing recorded information, assessments or calculations concerning these costs which were considered when the £396 million figure was presented as an economic benefit.

8. Costs to businesses and residents

Please provide any recorded information held by the GLA concerning economic costs to businesses and residents resulting from Carnival, including where available:

• business closures;
• lost trading days;
• boarding-up of premises;
• private security;
• cleaning and repairs;
• property damage;
• insurance-related costs;
• disruption to normal business operations.

Again, I am not asking the GLA to create new information. I am requesting any existing recorded assessments, reports, correspondence, surveys or estimates held.

9. Use of the £396 million figure

Please provide copies of any internal GLA documents, briefing notes, presentations, reports, emails or correspondence in which the £396 million figure was considered, approved, challenged, qualified or discussed before being used publicly by the Mayor or City Hall.

This should include, where held, documents concerning the decision to describe the figure as an economic “benefit”, “impact”, or “economic activity”.

Our response

The research you are referring to which presents Notting Hill Carnival as having a £396million economic benefit to London was not undertaken by the GLA. In 2024 The Voice newspaper commissioned research by JN Bank economist, James Williams, which indicated that the “total direct or net economic impact of Europe’s largest street festival is over £396 million annually”. The GLA does not hold any of the further documentation you have requested.