Key information
Request reference number: MGLA220223-0817
Date of response:
Summary of request
Your request
I refer to the Minutes of the London Assembly Transport Committee on 14 December 2022, page 2:
'As well as the research that was done (by Element Energy) on what is needed to reach net zero by 2030, which is the commitment that the Mayor has made, there is clear calculation that we need to reduce traffic by 27 per cent at least to reach that commitment.'
I hereby request a copy of the clear calculation which is said to show that we need to reduce traffic by 27 per cent.
Our response
The 27 per cent figure quoted relates to the modelled reduction in car vehicle km by 2030 relative to 2018, in the Accelerated Green scenario in the GLA’s recent Pathways modelling analysis 1.
This figure can be calculated using data in our Zero Carbon Pathways Tool, which was
developed by Element Energy.
Previous analysis by Element Energy on the replacement of London’s vehicle fleet and how quickly this will electrify gives a basis for estimating how far emissions can reduce with technology change alone.
In the Zero Carbon Pathways tool, Element Energy modelled scenarios for levels of vehicle km reductions to reduce transport emissions further in line with the Mayor’s net zero by 2030 target. The modelled vehicle km reductions were based on the target level of emissions reduction in each scenario and did not explicitly model how the vehicle km reductions would be achieved.
The Accelerated Green pathway is the scenario chosen by the Mayor to represent his preferred route to reaching net zero by 2030, and the 27 per cent reduction in vehicle km in this scenario is based on an acceleration of aims in the Mayor’s Transport Strategy of 10 years.
A simplified version of the tool is available on the London Datastore which has most of the
outputs required by users of the tool. However, to see the disaggregation of the data required to undertake the requested calculation, you will need to use the attached version of this tool which has further worksheets.
Instructions for the calculation
Select the 'Transport' worksheet and:
- sum the values: R198 to R201 (total car vkm in the accelerated green scenario in 2018: 21.7 billion km
- sum the values: AD109 to AD201 (total car vkm in the accelerated green scenario in 2030): 15.9 billion km
- The reduction in car vkm between 2018 and 2020 is 27 per cent.
For further information on this analysis and the report, please see the following link:
If you have any further questions relating to this matter, please contact us, quoting the reference MGLA220223-0817.