ADD2007 Air Quality Consultation – Survey and Analysis of Results

Type of decision: 
Assistant Director's decision
Code: 
ADD2007
Date signed: 
23 June 2016
Decision by: 
Patrick Feehily, Assistant Director, Environment

Executive summary

The Mayor has announced his intention to consult Londoners ‘within a matter of weeks’ on a major package of measures to tackle air pollution in London including extending the Ultra-Low Emission Zone (ULEZ), implementing an extra charge on the most polluting vehicles entering central London, introducing ULEZ standards for heavy vehicles London-wide from 2020 and establishing the feasibility of implementing a diesel scrappage scheme.

Stage 1 of the consultation will be carried out by the GLA’s Opinion Research team, and inform further policy development and subsequent statutory consultation that will take place. It will consist of:
•    survey and discussions via Talk London
•    online survey via TNS

Expenditure of £45,000 is required to:
•    commission an external agency to analyse the results
•    reach a representative sample of 1,000 Londoners and analyse differences in opinion/impact by demographic group
•    boost 1,000 responses from most affected parts of London 
 

Decision

That the Assistant Director of Environment approves the expenditure of up to £45,000 in support of the (Stage 1 Air Quality measures) online survey and analysis of results. 

 

Part 1: Non-confidential facts and advice

Introduction and background

1.1    The Mayor has announced his intention to consult Londoners ‘within a matter of weeks’ on a major package of measures to tackle air pollution in London including extending the Ultra-Low Emission Zone (ULEZ), implementing an extra charge on the most polluting vehicles entering central London, introducing ULEZ standards for heavy vehicles London-wide from 2020 and establishing the feasibility of implementing a diesel scrappage scheme.

1.2    Stage 1 of the consultation will be carried out by the GLA’s Opinion Research team and aim to: 

•    Demonstrate the Mayor’s commitment to lead an engaged and accessible City Hall administration; 
•    Engage a broad population of Londoners with the consultation - including people in areas most affected;
•    Provide insight that informs the development of effective and impactful policies, plans and interventions; and 
•    Ensure a public consultation on Air Quality (AQ) measures is launched prior to the summer holidays, and with time to ensure that certain measures could move to implementation in early 2017.

1.3    The consultation activities undertaken in Stage 1 will: 
 
•    Raise awareness of AQ challenges and gain public feedback on outline measures proposed to address the issue.  We want to expose our plans and ideas and to allow individuals to comment and provide feedback and their own ideas - so that ongoing development of policy is informed by public opinion; 
•    Establish which measures / interventions Londoners prioritise and think will have the most impact on improving AQ in London.  In broad terms, we will test demand for and impact of proposed measures;
•    Find out what actions Londoners are prepared to take to address poor AQ in the long term, and to avoid or alleviate poor AQ conditions in the short term e.g. willingness to react to emergency measures; and 
•    To engage a large number of Londoners in this Stage 1 phase of consultation, including those in worse affected areas, so that we can re-contact them to take part in the later detailed consultation Stages.
  
1.3     Research Methodology:
 

Consultation

Purpose

Cost

Survey

via Talk London

 

  • Cross-cutting survey covering broad range of air quality issues (i.e. beyond transport)
  • Quantitative measure of Londoners perceptions
  • Commission external agency to analyse qualitative responses

£0

 

 

c. £30,000

B – Discussions

via Talk London

  • Open but moderated qualitative discussions on full range of AQ related topics

£0

C – Online survey

Via TNS LondonBus

  • To reach representative sample of 1,000 Londoners and analyse differences in opinion/impact by demographic group
  • Boosting 1,000 responses from most affected parts of London (lower socio-economic groups in five named Boroughs)

c. £5,000

 

 

c. £10,000

1.4    Stage 2 and 3 consultation activities will demand feedback from Londoners on detailed, specific policy proposals.  These detailed consultation phases will ensure the GLA and Transport for London (TfL) fulfil statutory and legal obligations to consult – thereby minimising the risk of legal challenge by judicial review. 

Objectives and expected outcomes

Objectives:

2.1     From the TfL Market Research Framework, to commission TNS Research Ltd to deliver a quantitative online survey of a representative sample of 1000 Londoners, plus a boosted sample of 1,000 from respondents in areas most affected by poor air quality in London. The cost of this work is not expected to exceed £20,000.
2.2    To commission a market research agency to deliver qualitative analysis of open-ended questions from the Talk London Air Quality survey on air quality. The agency will be required to analyse responses between 8-50 words; three demographic questions for cross-tabulation; coding to include ‘over-codes’ and ‘sub-codes’ around the topics of interest.  TfL advise that there is no suitable framework from which to call off a contract.  A competitive procurement process will be followed in order to identify a suitable company with the requisite expertise in qualitative analysis. The cost of this work is not expected to exceed £25,000. 
                
Outcomes: 
2.3    Robust consultation and research is undertaken to inform policy and decision making:

•    2,000 responses to the TNS online survey of Londoners with results in crosstab form by 21 July 2016 (Analysis of the outcomes likely summarised in a report produced in house); and
•    A code book of responses to the open-ended questions from the Talk London Air Quality survey, and tables with demographic cross-tabulations.
 

Equality comments

3.1    Giving due attention to the views of all Londoners has been identified as a key objective for the upcoming Air Quality consultation.  In boosting the sample of responses to the TNS online survey, and in asking an agency to code the answers to open ended questions in the Talk London survey by gender, ethnicity and age, the ORS team will report significant differences in the views of these groups. 

 

Other considerations

4.1    Key risks and issues are set out below:

 

Risk description (cause, 'risk event', potential impacts)

Probability (1-5)

Impact   
(1-5)

RAG

Mitigation/Risk response (state if the response is done or pending)

GLA Owner

1

Confusion among citizen participants as to purpose of consultation Stage 1 vs other stages

 

2

2

A

> Ensure purpose of initial stage of consultation, in relation to other stages is clearly outlined in context material, CRM emails and marketing campaign

> Clear communication that further consultation stages are to follow, led by TfL.

> Clearly feedback results and how they will be taken forward via Talk London/comms

> Commission of TNS to deliver separate  sample will not require understanding on the part of participants about the wider consultation.

Marketing/All

2

Not reaching lower socio-economic groups, older people, impact on children in the consultation (ie groups most affected negatively by air quality)

 

 

2

3

A

> Target media/marketing outreach to affected groups and ask relevant stakeholder orgs to disseminate

> Also run boosted sample poll with TNS to pick up solid sample for C2DE in inner London

> Encourage teams with links to community groups (eg Health, Diversity & Social Policy, TfL CRM databases) to promote through their networks

> Also ensure as broad a net as possible is cast on social media

ORS/Marketing

3

Time slippage for any particular part of the fieldwork

 

1

1

G

> Establish clear timelines for delivery, especially from external agencies

> TNS have given provisional timetable for their work and in long-standing relationship with GLA have not missed estimated timeframes by more than a couple of days. Regular updates sought from TNS

> Other consultation activity outside scope of this ADD is GLA led (eg Talk London survey, discussions), where timelines are in our control and insight gained in addition to paid commissions.

ORS

4

Consultation covers proposals that are then deemed to be impractical or too expensive at implementation stage/later consultation stages

 

IMPACT

> Political - Mayor doesn't deliver a Manifesto commitment or has to change course on previous proposal

> Undermines legitimacy of City Hall consultation, with possible trust implications for future consultations on other topics

2

2

A

> Focus early stages of consultation on background principles, experiences and perceptions, rather than specific policy proposals

> Thoroughly develop proposals with input from GLA and TfL policy teams, legal and finance teams.

> Ensure that rationale for decision making is clearly evidenced and explained (ie includes public opinion, but also data & policy expertise)

> Manage participants expectations on the decision making process - report back regularly to participants on progress, continued message that the insight they've provided has been valuable and fed back to decision makers

ORS

4.2    The consultation will support the development of a suite of measures that is likely to bring forward compliance with EU limit values particularly for NOx. This is consistent delivery of the Mayor’s Air Quality Strategy. 

 

Financial comments

5.1    Approval is being sought for expenditure of up to £45,000 in support of the (Stage 1 Air Quality measures) online survey and analysis of results. This is to be funded from Executive Director, Development, Enterprise and Environment (DE&E) 2016-17 Minor Programme budget and the work and report will be all delivered in 2016-17.

Planned delivery approach and next steps

The LL Due Diligence will be tendered through an appropriate TfL consultancy framework.

June

Tasks

Actions

Tue 21

Consultation content considered for approval/amends

IG

Weds 22

Stage 1 project group meeting – review progress

All

Weds 22 - Thurs 23

Amend to draft survey and discussion guides based on IG discussion

ORS

Thurs 23

Circulate to TfL for comments and feedback.

ORS/Claire

Fri 24

Officer approval for survey and discussion guides

TfL/Env

 Weds 29

Final sign-off for survey and discussion guides (To take place through one-off meeting of IG group)

IG

Weds 29

Commission TNS for LondonBus survey

ORS

Weds 29

Begin procurement/tender of external research agency for analysis of open comments/discussions

ORS

Mon 27 Jun- Thurs 30

Survey uploaded and TL discussions prepared on Talk London

ORS

July

Tasks

Actions

Tues 5 Jul

Consultation Launch

All

Tues 5 Jul – Fri 29 Jul

Talk London Survey and Discussions Fieldwork

ORS

Thu 7 Jul – Sun 17 Jul

TNS LondonBus Fieldwork

ORS

Mon 18 Jul – Fri 22 Jul

Analyse TNS LondonBus Results

ORS

Fri 29 Jul

Stage 1 consultation close

All

Mon 1 Aug – Fri 26 Aug

Analysis of Stage 1 results

ORS/External agency