ADD2295 Subscriptions required by GLA Economics for 2019

To produce the GLA’s "London's Economic Outlook" forecast document, GLA Economics must ensure that it has access to all available credible, comparative data to inform its analysis. In order to produce London’s Economic Outlook, the GLA subscribes to the four providers of reputable economic forecasting services for London, namely: Experian Economics; Oxford Economics; CEBR; and Cambridge Econometrics (Forecasters).

Although the GLA Economics Research and Evaluation Framework has been re-established, the subscriptions required fall outside of the scope of the framework.

London economic forecasts will be purchased from all four of the Forecasters to enable comparison of GLA Economics forecasts with those of other market specialists. The GLA is satisfied that the four Forecasters (who are all included in the Framework) remain, and are, the only organisations who would be able to provide the specific data subscriptions required to produce ‘London’s Economic Outlook’.

The Forecasters provide historic and forecast data for both the absolute level of Gross Value Added (GVA) and employment in London, as well as forecasts for all sectors of London’s economy. This access to specialist data enables comparative analysis of the GLA’s ‘London’s Economic Outlook’ forecast with the forecasts of market specialists, thereby providing quality assurance of the GLA's in-house forecast. Access to these historic time series and forecasts also allow the GLA to monitor the evolving sentiment around the likely performance of London’s economy, as well as informing policy development across different areas of the GLA Group.

The total fees for the four subscriptions in 2018 were £34,912. It is expected that the subscription costs for 2019 will be £35,285

Officers acknowledge that section 4.1 of the GLA's Contracts and Funding Code (‘Code’) requires that contracts with an estimated value of up to £10,000 are procured by seeking three or more written quotations or that the services are called off from an accessible framework (Experian Economics, Cambridge Economics, CEBR, Oxford Economics) and that contracts with an estimated value of up £10,000 to £150,000 are procured either by making a call-off from a suitable framework or by a formal tender process.

However, section 5 of the Code provides that exemptions from that requirement may be approved where there is a complete absence of competition. Following the establishment of the GLA Economics Research and Evaluation Framework, with specific reference to Lot 1 relating to ‘Monitoring and Forecasting the London Economy’, it has been confirmed that the four current suppliers remain the only companies that would be able to provide the economic data subscriptions required. This has been further reinforced by recent desk-based research of forecasters’ websites. In addition, there is a requirement for consistency over an extended time-span in order to maintain the methodology employed by GLA Economics to ensure the delivery of robust forecasts and analysis. To this end, the GLA will procure the subscriptions by seeking quotes from the four forecasters and enter into contract with all four, as in previous years. No party will be put at a disadvantage as subscriptions will be purchased from the entire market and purchasing all four forecasters’ data ensures that GLA Economics has access to complete sets of information and is able to ensure that analysis is not distorted by outliers in these forecasts.

To purchase subscriptions from: Experian Economics; Oxford Economics; CEBR; and Cambridge Econometrics, for the provision of credible, comparative economic data on London to produce the GLA’s ‘London's Economic Outlook’ forecast and other reports.

Under Section 149 of the Equality Act 2010, as a public authority, the Mayor of London must have ‘due regard’ of the need to eliminate unlawful discrimination, harassment and victimisation as well as to advance equality of opportunity and foster good relations between people who have a protected characteristic and those who do not.

Equality considerations have been taken into account as a part of this procurement process, however, as these subscriptions relate to economic data the selection of data providers are based on the suitability of the product provided implying that the selection is likely to have only limited or no implications for equality.

Risks

The subscriptions will be managed in line with standard GLA Group contract procedures, drawing on advice from TfL procurement officers where required. If we do not purchase the subscription, we will have an inconsistent data series and will be unable to produce ‘London's Economic Outlook’ for the GLA Group.

The subscriptions are to be procured through seeking quotes from the four Forecasters; if this process were changed without advanced preparation, or if one of the Forecasters did not quote a price for their annual subscription, this would severely impact on the ‘London’s Economic Outlook’ forecast report and its wider use within the GLA Group, such as in the London Plan or TfL planning projections. The risk can be mitigated by retaining consistency within the process and the likelihood of non-submission of a quote by a Forecaster is deemed by GLA Economics to be very low.

Links to strategies and Mayoral and corporate priorities

London's Economic Outlook is a fundamental requirement for GLA Group planning. The data is also required for additional work completed by GLA Economics for TfL's planning projections.

Impact assessments and Consultation

The creation of forecasts is an agreed output of the GLA Intelligence business plan.

The total cost for the proposed subscriptions is £35,285 (for the period from 1 January 2019 to the 31 December 2019). The cost per subscription is as follows:

The proposed subscriptions will span over two financial years (2018-19 is £8,821 and 2019-20 is £26,464) for which costs are to be contained within the existing GLA Economics Budget held within the Intelligence Unit, with the 2019-20 budget subject to the Authority’s budget setting process for 2019-20.

Sections 1-5 of this report indicate that:

- the decisions requested of the assistant director (in accordance with the GLA’s Contracts and Funding Code) relate to expenditure for the commissioning of supplies and services which fall within the GLA’s statutory powers to do things facilitative of and conducive to the discharge of its general functions; and

- in formulating the proposals in respect of which a decision is sought officers have complied with the Authority’s related statutory duties to:

(a) pay due regard to the Public Sector Equality Duty; namely the need to eliminate discrimination, harassment, victimisation and any other conduct prohibited by the Equality Act 2010 and to advance equality of opportunity and foster good relations between persons who share a relevant protected characteristic (race, disability, gender, age, sexual orientation, religion or belief, pregnancy and maternity and gender reassignment) and persons who do not share it (section 149 of the Equality Act 2010). To this end, the Director should have particular regard to section 5 (above) of this report.

(b) consider how the proposals will promote the improvement of health of persons, health inequalities between persons and to contribute towards the achievement of sustainable development in the United Kingdom; and

(c) consult with appropriate bodies.

Section 4.1 of the Contracts and Funding Code (the ‘Code’) requires the GLA to Seek a call-off from a suitable framework, where possible, or if not, undertake a formal tender process which will be managed by TfL in respect of the services. However, the director may approve an exemption from this requirement under section 5 of the Code upon certain specified grounds. One of those grounds is that there is a complete absence of competition. Officers have indicated at paragraph 1.7of this report that this ground applies and that the proposed contracts affords value for money.

Officers must ensure that appropriate contract documentation is put in place and executed by the Forecasters and the GLA before the payment of any sums and the provision of any supplies or services.

This is not necessary as this ADD relates to the purchase of subscription data service from external economic consultancies; the subscription data will be used to produce "London's Economic Outlook" forecast document and, more generally, to inform GLA Economics’ analysis of the state of the London’s economy.