ADD2831 Waste model update

1.1.    The Mayor is required to publish a spatial development strategy (the London Plan) every five years; and to keep it under review. 

1.2.    The Reducing Non-Residential Emissions delivery plan sets out that the GLA will: 
•    tackle emissions from waste
•    support London’s transition to circular economy. 
This project will support delivery of this objective, by updating waste arisings modelling and predictions up to 2050. The work also facilitates borough waste apportionment; this is critical to planning for London’s waste management in the future.

1.3.    Under the GLA Act 1999 (updated in 2007), waste collection and disposal authorities must comply with the Environment Strategy and the London Plan. These set out policies to support the Mayor’s targets in relation to waste and recycling. The London Plan sets out an obligation on boroughs to plan for an apportioned amount of household, commercial and industrial waste. 

1.4.    Under Mayoral Decision 3001, the Mayor approved funding for technical consultancy services to develop the evidence base that will underpin the policy development for the next London Plan. This decision included spending £145,000 to develop relevant evidence on waste and circular economy. 

1.5.    This work was procured, and the outputs have been delivered to the GLA. These include a new waste-arisings model, and predictions of waste arisings up to 2050. The model uses a combination of population data, and past data, on waste arisings.

1.6.    Since that work was procured, it was agreed that across all data-informed evidence supporting the revision of the London Plan, 2024 population figures (available in March 2026) must be used. This is to provide consistency in the data used across the London Plan.

1.7.    This work will inform the update of waste and circular economy policies in the London Plan; and ensure they are based on up-to-date information.

1.8.    Officers expect that updating the waste-arisings model and predictions, and the apportionment figures, to 2050 (using the recently available 2024 population figures) will cost approximately £25,000. 
 

2.1.    The objective of this project is to provide: 
•    updated waste-arising figures up to 2050, using 2024 population data
•    provide borough-level apportionment-targets, for each local authority, up to 2050.

2.2.    Key outputs will be:
•    updated waste-arising predictions, for household waste, up to 2050
•    revised borough-level apportionment targets for household, commercial and industrial waste. 

2.3.    The outcome will be updated London Plan policies, based on the most up-to-date population data.
 

3.1.    The Public Sector Equality Duty (PSED), under section 149 of the Equality Act 2010, requires public authorities to have “due regard” to the need to: 
•    eliminate discrimination, harassment and victimisation, and any other conduct that is prohibited by or under the Equality Act 2010
•    advance equality of opportunity, and foster good relations, between those who share a relevant protected characteristic and those who do not. 

The PSED covers nine protected characteristics, including age, disability, race, and sex; and it ensures that equality is considered in policy and service delivery.

3.2.    The draft London Plan will be subject to an integrated Impact Assessment (which will include an Equalities Impact Assessment). 
 

Key risks
4.1.    The London Plan is independently examined by planning inspectors employed by the Planning Inspectorate. Whether the plan is proven to be sound, and can therefore be adopted, is subject to a ‘test of soundness’. Sufficient evidence underpinning policies is required for the plan to be proven sound. 

4.2.    The updated population data was made available on 30 March 2026. This creates a tight timescale to use this data within the deadlines for consultation on the new London Plan. This is driven in part by the tight timescale for the wider evidence development; and the need to ensure that the evidence is not out of date by the time of the examination. 

4.3.    There is a risk that insufficient quotes are received when requests are submitted. This will be addressed by approaching organisations that are known to have the necessary skills and experience available. 

Links to Mayoral strategies and priorities

4.4.    The Mayor’s Reducing Non-Residential Emissions mandate includes tackling emissions from waste; and promoting a circular economy. It states that the GLA should use its statutory powers, its relationship with ReLondon, its Responsible Procurement Strategy, and other levers to: 
•    decarbonise supply chains
•    minimise waste
•    support the circular economy
•    increase recycling 
•    manage waste sustainably.

4.5.    This work will support delivery of the objective above, by using the Mayor’s statutory powers in the London Plan to reduce waste and emissions linked to waste.  

4.6.    There are no conflicts of interest with regards to this project – including from any of those involved in the drafting or clearance of this decision form. 

4.7.    Section 334 of the GLA Act requires the Mayor to prepare and publish a Spatial Development Strategy (known as the London Plan). Section 339 of the GLA Act requires the Mayor to keep the London Plan under review. 

4.8.    Legal have been engaged, and they have advised that they do not need to comment on this decision.
 

5.1.    Approval is requested to spend up to £25,000 on consultancy services to deliver the required update. 

5.2.    This will be funded from the Waste and Circular Economy budget for 2026-27. 

5.3.    All appropriate budget adjustments will be made.
 

6.1.    The project will be delivered according to the following timetable