Strategic Transport Modelling

In 2022, Mayoral Decision 2971 approved £300,000 of funding from OPDC to TfL towards a now completed ‘North Station Feasibility Study’ (£100k), alongside funding a Strategic Modelling exercise for Old Oak and Park Royal (£200k), to which this decision relates. There is no budget remaining from this Mayoral Decision.

Jacobs were commissioned in January 2023 to undertake the strategic modelling exercise, using TfL’s full suite of strategic models (MoTiON, Railplan, Loham). The brief for this piece of work was to test the impact of the development scenario set out in the OPDC’s adopted Local Plan on the local transport network, as well as to consider the impact of development plus Old Oak Common acting as the High Speed Two (HS2) terminus. A subsequent contract variation was undertaken to consider a revised development scenario for ‘Old Oak West’, which was covered by the Mayoral Decision budgetary approval.

A contract variation with TfL’s existing supplier Jacobs is required to fund three additional activities that fall outside the scope of the original contract. This includes funding:

• Additional project management resource due to the project taking significantly longer than originally anticipated, alongside additional resource needed to validate the models through extra ‘Motion’ transport modelling software runs. We have accepted both requests are valid from a technical perspective. Cost: £25,000
• Additional resource to code some of the highways and public transport interventions that were identified through a stakeholder workshop, to enable them to be tested in the relevant model (Railplan and Loham). In addition to the model coding, we also require Jacobs to run a round of signal optimisation for the schemes which involve changing signal timings. Cost: £10,000
• A further round of station access analysis work to include both OPDC and HS2 demand. This modelling is focussed on Old Oak Common Lane and is needed to feed into Vissim modelling we are looking to procure separately with TfL, HS2 and Department of Transport (DfT), and which will be used to inform revisions to the design of Old Oak Common Lane, the HS2 station access junction and surface transport interchange. Cost: £25,000

The total for this additional work is £60,000. OPDC and TfL are proposing to share the cost 50/50 for this further work and this decision is therefore requesting approval for £30,000 of expenditure. TfL are separately securing financial approval for their contribution via a Director’s Funding Request. TfL are the signatories to the contract with the consultants so OPDC will pay TfL its share for the work.

The modelling will be used for two key purposes:

• To better refine proposed interventions to be tested in the strategic transport modelling. This modelling will be used to inform future highway, public transport and walking and cycling infrastructure delivery and will inform policy formulation as part of OPDC’s future Local Plan review.
• To inform designs for Old Oak Common Lane. The strategic modelling will provide details of expected vehicular flows along Old Oak Common Lane and through the junction into the Old Oak Common station site. The strategic modelling work will be used to underpin micro-simulation modelling undertaken by OPDC, TfL, HS2 Ltd and DfT. This modelling will inform designs of key infrastructure in and around the Old Oak Common station including the surface transport interchange (buses, taxis and kiss and ride facilities), the Old Oak Common Lane highway, cycle lanes and footways, the HS2 access junction into the station, the junction into the Adjacent Site Development (ASD) development site, pedestrian crossings and islands and turn-in geometries for junctions.

The intervention testing is fundamental to OPDC’s Local Plan review. As a Local Planning Authority, OPDC has a statutory duty to produce and have an up-to-date Local Plan. Government requires that Local Plans should be reviewed within five years of adoption. OPDC adopted its Local Plan in 2022 and is therefore required to commence a review by 2027. The strategic modelling will be a key study for a future Local Plan review.

The Old Oak Common Lane modelling is a key component in ensuring key infrastructure required for the Old Oak Common station and infrastructure required to support new development is appropriately designed to cater for anticipated demand. This modelling therefore supports key OPDC Planning and Delivery activities.

The contract with Jacobs is being managed by TfL’s Growth Areas and Interchanges team. Quotes for the further work have been obtained by TfL’s transport modelling team and have been scrutinised and interrogated by technical leads. The additional work would be procured via a single source contract variation with Jacobs, undertaken by TfL’s Growth Areas and Interchanges team. OPDC would have regular oversight and sign-off of the work undertaken in accordance with the contract.

Risks and Issues

Under Section 149 of the Equality Act 2010, as a public authority, OPDC must have ‘due regard’ to the need to eliminate unlawful discrimination, harassment and victimisation as well as to the need to advance equality of opportunity and foster good relations between people who share a protected characteristic and those who do not.

The modelling work will support the delivery of an integrated transport network designed to be inclusive. This work will therefore indirectly be of benefit to all groups with protected characteristics in the Equality Act.

There are no other considerations that need to be considered in the taking of this decision.

None.

Expenditure of up to £30,000 to be funded by the Planning Policy 2024/25 budget. As the cumulative likelihood and impact ratings of scope creep per 5.1 are deemed critical/severe, this suggests the probability of this initial approval being breached is significant, meaning a further Decision may be needed in such an event.

Jacobs will extend their contract with TfL and make use of TfL’s own modelling software to deliver the outputs; TfL should recharge OPDC for its share of the costs as Jacobs are effectively working at the behest of both TfL and OPDC, to whom the outputs will be delivered.

N/A.

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