DD2804 Economic and Infrastructure Uses Demand and Supply Study – updated population projections

1.1.    The decision for the original study was approved in Mayoral Decision (MD) 3301. The study provides quantitative and qualitative evidence of the demand for, and supply of, economic and infrastructure uses in London, at a strategic level. It will form part of the evidence base for the new London Plan and its Examination in Public. It will also support policy development, implementation and monitoring for a wide range of policies.

1.2.    The original study was procured for £135,799.90; this is now being spent. MD3301 specifically allocated £120,000 to the project; the remaining costs were covered by contingency allowances within that MD. However, this project exceeds what can be covered by those contingencies.
 

2.1.    Following some delays, up-to-date GLA population projections will be available in April 2026. At this point, further work is needed to update the Economic and Infrastructure Uses Demand and Supply Study, using this newly available data. 

2.2.    How future demand for several economic and infrastructure uses is calculated depends on these projections. The work will update the forecasts for relevant uses, as well as the related narrative and commentary. This means the assessment of economic and infrastructure demand will be more accurate and timely. This, in turn, will ensure that the appropriate amount of land needed is identified. This is particularly important given the pressure to accommodate other uses (such as housing), and to minimise use of the Green Belt.

2.3.    Consultants are expected to produce updated modelling results for the demand-assessment models for storage and distribution; and for all population-based and spend-based uses in scope. All relevant reporting will be updated accordingly – including conclusions; recommendations; and equality, diversity and inclusion implications.
 

3.1.    Under section 149 of the Equality Act 2010, as a public authority, the GLA must have due regard to the need to eliminate unlawful discrimination, harassment and victimisation; and to advance equality of opportunity, and foster good relations, between people who have a protected characteristic and those who do not.

3.2.    This work will provide accurate, quantitative evidence of the demand for different economic uses in London. As such, it is expected to support London Plan policy approaches to ensure sufficient land and premises, across a wide range of economic uses, in order to accommodate and service projected growth in London. At a strategic level, this should help to underpin the aim of the London Plan (and the London Growth Plan) to support economic success and share the benefits more equitably across the capital. In this way, it will help to reduce the disproportionate impact of poor economic prospects on people who share protected characteristics.

3.3.    It is not considered that there will be any negative equalities impacts associated with this decision.
 

Key risks and issues

4.1.    Not carrying out the work would have the following effects:

•    It would increase the risk that the provision of land and premises for employment, infrastructure and land to support London’s economic functions is insufficient. This may give rise to insufficient servicing; and therefore have negative impacts on the capital’s economy, employment, competitiveness and sustainability. As an example, between 2001 and 2020, London lost 18 per cent of its industrial land. This has put extra pressure on the services and infrastructure London needs to function sustainably.

•    It would undermine the Mayor’s evidence base to support the new London Plan, and its associated Examination in Public; and the work with boroughs on Local Plans.

•    It would risk sub-optimal investment to support London’s employment, industrial areas, businesses and infrastructure. 

Links to Mayoral strategies and priorities 

4.2.    The work will inform: 

•    the development of long-term policy approaches in the new London Plan

•    the implementation and monitoring of the current London Plan. 
It will complement the evidence base and implementation of the London Growth Plan. The work also informs and supports the delivery of the Making Best Use of Land Delivery Plan – ensuring appropriate provision of, and balance between, different land use requirements.

Consultations and impact assessments, including data protection

4.3.    Impact assessments are carried out as part of preparing reviews and alterations to the London Plan; and developing London Plan Guidance. A separate impact assessment is not required for this work. Consultation on the project specification has taken place within the GLA.

 
Conflicts of interest. 

4.4.    There are no conflicts of interest to note for any of the officers involved in the drafting or clearance of this decision form.
 

5.1.    Approval is sought to spend up to £17,000 in financial year 2026-27, for further work on the Economic and Infrastructure Uses Demand and Supply Study. This work will update the future demand modelling based on the latest population projections. This cost will be funded from the London Plan programme budget.

6.1.    Section 334 of the Greater London Authority Act (the Act) requires the Mayor to prepare and publish a Spatial Development Strategy (known as the London Plan). Section 339 of the Act requires the Mayor to keep the London Plan under review – especially matters that may be expected to affect the development of Greater London, or the planning of its development.

6.2.    The decision requested of the Executive Director of Good Growth (to approve collating the evidence base to support the London Plan) also concerns the exercise of the GLA’s general statutory powers under section 30 of the Act, to do such things considered to further, or that are facilitative of, or conducive or incidental to, the promotion of economic development and wealth creation, social development, or the improvement of the environment in Greater London. 

6.3.    In formulating the proposals in respect of which a decision is sought, officers have complied with the GLA’s related statutory duties to: 

•    pay due regard to the principle that there should be equality of opportunity for all people

•    consider how the proposals will promote the improvement of health of persons, health inequalities between persons and to contribute towards the achievement of sustainable development in the UK 

•    consult with appropriate bodies. 

6.4.    The GLA also has a subsidiary power, pursuant to section 34 of the Act, to do anything that is calculated to facilitate, or is conductive or incidental to, the exercise of any of the GLA’s statutory functions. In this case, the work to collate the evidence base to support the London Plan is incidental to the GLA’s section 30 powers (defined above); and its powers under sections 334 and 339 of the Act. 

6.5.    In taking the decision requested, the Executive Director must have due regard to the Public Sector Equality Duty – namely the need to eliminate discrimination, harassment, victimisation and any other conduct prohibited by the Equality Act 2010. Throughout the process outlined above (in particular section 3), due regard will need to be had to the equality impact considerations and mitigations. 

6.6.    The services required will be procured in consultation with TfL Procurement – who will determine the detail of the procurement strategy to be adopted in accordance with the GLA’s Contracts and Funding Code. Officers must liaise with TfL Procurement in this regard; and to ensure all necessary contract documentation is put in place, and executed, before services begin.
 

7.1.    The exact timing of the work depends on the availability of the updated population projections. The broad timeframe is as follows: