Violent crime

1. Violent crime has been falling consistently in England and Wales since 1995, according to the British Crime Survey (BCS). The BCS in London has followed the same pattern although there has been a slight rise on 2003/4.
2. Latest recorded crime figures for London also show a slight increase of 8.6% in the year 2004/5.
3. The 8.6% increase is made up entirely of a rise in low level and alcohol related violent crime. Half of this is due to increased police activity.
4. The MPS response to the increase is:
· The continued rollout of Safer Neighbourhood Teams to specifically address lower level crimes, including crimes of violence.
· The continuation of Operation OPTIC, to address alcohol related disorder.
· Sustained commitment to robust activity against the perpetrators of domestic violence.

MPS Crime Data. End of Year 2004/5 versus 2003/4

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· Violence against the person has risen by 8.6% or 16,400 additional offences.

· Alcohol related offences have increased by 27%, or 17,000 offences. Alcohol related offences reported by victims has risen by 15.2% or 7,700 whilst offences not involving alcohol have dropped slightly.

· Domestic violence continues to be 25% of all VAP. This has remained stable.

· VAP is dominated by low level violence and disorder
o 63% classified as `less serious violence with no injury'
o 33% classified as `less serious violence with injury'
o only 4% is classified as `more serious violence'

What the British Crime Survey has to say about violence

The MPS and ACPO commissioned a report from Professor Mike Hough of Kings College London, to analyse trends in violent crime, comparing the British Crime Survey (BCS) and police recorded crime, specifically looking at London.

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BCS and recorded crime show opposite trends in violent crime. Recorded violence crime in England and Wales shows a 64% rise between 1999/2000 and 2003/4, whereas the BCS shows violence falling by 21% over the same period. This trend is also reflected in their data for London, and a small increase in 2003/4 is to be viewed with caution due to the small sample size.



Number of violent incidents 1981 to 2003/04: England & Wales (BCS)

The report asserts that this can be explained by:

· Recorded data is affected by changes in legislation and processes, such as counting rules, new offence categories, and new police powers. This has contributed to a significant increase in the recording of `no injury violent crime' such as harassment and public order offences.

· BCS data reflects public experience unaffected by whether they chose to involve police or not in their incident.

· BCS data ignores the significant level of violent crime involving young people under 16 that is reflected in the police recorded data.

· Greater confidence in police services and police activity such as the issuing of Police Notices of Disorder (PNDs) can both contribute to increases in reported violent crime.

Whilst the differences in the two sets of data are explained below, BCS data can be seen as a reliable indicator as their methodology has remained unchanged over the relevant time period, and is not subject to the changes in recording practises, counting rules and legislative changes that can affect recorded crime data.

Location for violence has the home as most common location although there is a recent increase in incidents, particularly in London, around leisure facilities (which include pubs, clubs, restaurants and cinemas).

The BCS agrees with recorded crime data that alcohol related violence is increasing.

The nature of violence is changing, with falls in offences amongst those known to each other, but stranger violence has remained stable according to the BCS.