People on Primrose Hill

Population projections

In the GLA Demography team we produce sets of 'demographic projections'. These are estimates of the size and characteristics of the future resident population of London.

Population projections for London

Our demographic projections support the work of planners and policy makers in City Hall and across London. Most are updated annually, using the latest data as it becomes available.

Our work builds on projection models that stretch back to the early 1970s. The models continue to change as new sources of data become available and new methodologies are developed. These models use data from the Office for National Statistics including Census 2011 outputs, births, deaths and migration. They also use assumed future housing data from the Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment and from the Department for Communities and Local Government.

Current projection outputs from the team include:

  • borough population based on past trends in births, deaths and migration
  • borough and ward-level population incorporating assumed future housing development
  • borough population by ethnic group
  • household by local authority

In addition to the London outputs, the GLA produces trend projections for all local authorities in England. This is primarily to assist in strategic planning across the wider region and to help those authorities which border London understand the implications of our projections.

We also run City Hall’s school place projection service, which is provided to London’s local authorities. The service produces bespoke projections to support planning and policy decisions.

Our latest publications are described below.

2016-based population projections