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London’s Economic Outlook (LEO)

LEO is published twice a year, in the spring and autumn. Each issue provides an overview of recent economic developments in London, the UK and world economies. It outlines our latest forecasts for London’s economy and employment, and possible risks that may affect these forecasts.

GLA Economics’ 46th London forecast suggests that:

  • London’s real Gross Value Added (GVA) is forecast to grow by 1.6% in 2025, supported by moderating domestic inflation and improving household sentiment, though global trade disruptions and lingering inflationary risks remain key sources of uncertainty. Growth is expected to strengthen modestly to 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027, with growth supported by a more stable macroeconomic environment.
  • Workforce jobs in London are projected to increase by 0.8% in 2025, as the labour market continues to cool following the post-pandemic rebound. Job growth is expected to pick up to 1.0% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027, supported by strengthening labour demand and a gradual return to trend employment growth.
  • Household income is expected to rise by 2.6% in 2025, supported by falling inflation and rising wages. Growth is forecast to slow to 1.4% in 2026, with a modest rebound to 1.5% in 2027. 
  • Household spending is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2025, before easing to 2.4% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027.

The data that sits behind the forecast is available to download from the Datastore.

The economic impacts under future funding scenarios for TfL

GLA Economics and Transport for London (TfL) have analysed the implications of a forced move to a ‘managed decline’ scenario if the Government does not provide the emergency and long-term funding required to maintain the capital’s transport services.

The new GLA Economics forecast models for London's economy

Working paper 98 presents the new GLA Economics forecast models and evaluates their performance with respect to the previous methodology, a comparable independent forecaster, and outturn data.

Transport expenditure in London 2020

Current Issues Note 60 looks at the case for continuing transport expenditure in London, and specifically in relation to transport investment. It considers the demand for transport services, the rationale for investment, and the levels of investment, who funds it and who pays.

The economic impact of Brexit on London

This report summarises the evidence on the economic impacts of Brexit on the London and UK economies. It looks both at the impacts that have been already observed since the EU Referendum (e.g. impacts on investment and GDP) and at potential future impacts, both in the short and longer term.

The London input-output tables

This Working Paper (97) is the first set of published input-output tables for London, and is an important step towards economic accounts for the city.

Regional, sub-regional & local GVA estimates for London 1997-2016

Current Issues Note 57 shows that: In 2016, London’s total nominal GVA (as measured by GVA (I)) was under £396 billion (up 4.4 per cent on 2015). This represented 22.7 per cent of the UK’s total GVA (I) in 2016, up from 22.5 per cent in 2015 and 18.5 per cent when going even further back to 1997.

An analysis of London's exports

Working Paper 91 shows that in 2015 London exported £131.1 billion of goods and services. This was up from £126.4 billion in 2011. More than three-quarters (77 per cent) of this was exports of services.

Demand and supply for accessible hotel rooms in London

Given the need to understand better the potential room requirements for disabled visitors, Working Paper 90 presents projections of the demand and supply of accessible hotel rooms in London up to 2041.

GVA in London's local authorities

Current Issues Note 55 looks at GVA in London's local authorities in a London and UK context, 1997-2015.

Transport expenditure in London

Current Issues Note 54 sets out the rationale for investing in transport infrastructure and presents data on the current and planned levels of transport expenditure, with an emphasis on London.

Regional, sub-regional & local GVA estimates for London 1997-2015

Current Issues Note 52 presents the findings for London from the main GVA release (using the income approach) and then outlines the results from the experimental real GVA data.

GVA per workforce job estimates for London

Working Paper 87 provides estimates of GVA per workforce job for London, the regions and the UK, by industry section and division, through to 2015.

A description of London's economy

The purpose of Working Paper 85 is to describe the structure and make-up of London’s economy in different parts of the capital.

London and Europe - Facts and figures

On 23 June 2016 the UK voted to leave the EU. Since then there has been a high demand for data on various aspects of London’s relationship with both the rest of the UK and Europe in light of the upcoming Article 50 negotiations.

Current Issues Note 51 sets out to summarise some of the extensive selection of data and surveys that cover this topic, helping to enlighten debate and decision making.

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