Understanding Victim Withdrawal in London

• Nationally, victim withdrawal from investigations has been stable over recent years (39% withdraw). The MPS are slightly better compared to the national average (36% vs 39%).
• CPS data indicates that the proportion of non-convictions due to victim withdrawal has remained relatively stable, ranging between 27% - 32% nationally. London fares slightly better here also.
• Reaching a finalised prosecution in London takes considerably longer.

• Higher harm/complex cases see higher withdrawal: 69% for Adult Rape, 59% for Domestic Abuse, 51% for CSA, 50% for Adult Sexual Offences. 
• Withdrawal varies across London. The largest variances are seen for Domestic Abuse (16pp range), Adult Sexual Offences (15pp range) & Serious Youth Violence (25pp range). 
• The Central East Basic Command Unit (BCU) had significantly lower rates while West Area BCU had significantly higher rates of withdrawal. While overall rates may be influenced by crime type makeup at BCU level - particularly Domestic Abuse rates - the reasons for differing rates at crime type level are unclear. 
• Victims of non-sexual offences generally withdraw within 12 weeks, while victims of Sexual Offences & Child Sexual Abuse withdraw later. Similar factors drive early & overall withdrawal.  

Across all crime types, the strongest variables that predicted withdrawal were:

• Victims of Rape were 3.2 times more likely to withdraw.
• Victims knowing the suspect - when the suspect was a current or ex-partner, the victim was x2.1 times more likely to withdraw.
• When the offence takes place in a private place - offences that took place in a private residential venue were 2.3 times more likely to end in withdrawal, offences that occurred in hotels/hostels 2.2 times more likely to end in withdrawal.
• When the suspect was young - where the suspect was under 18 years old, the case was 2.1 times more likely to end in withdrawal. 

There were some unique aspects within specific offences, for example: 

• Within Hate Crime, the presence of a domestic incident flag or a knife crime feature were key drivers of withdrawal.
• For non-intimate partner Domestic Abuse, withdrawal is more likely when it is an HBV offence.
• For Serious Youth Violence offences, withdrawal was more likely when the suspect was known on the Police National Computer (PNC) or the offence was reported or found by the police.

Victims are less likely to withdraw from Robbery, Arson & Criminal damage cases. 

Across all crime, the strongest variables that predicted a lower likelihood of withdrawal were:

• The arrest of the suspect - when the suspect was arrested at the scene we found 2.6 times fewer withdrawals. Arrests at a later stage saw 3.7 times fewer withdrawals.
• A delay in reporting - offences reported over a year later saw 1.6 times fewer withdrawals.
• When reported by a third-party authority.
• When there is a young victim.
• When there is a repeat victim.

• Victims’ feedback highlighted the desire to move on, avoid re-traumatisation, the length of the criminal justice process, worry about repercussions from the offender and a lack of support from officers/wider agencies as influential in withdrawing.
• They suggested better emotional understanding, clear updates from police & wider policy changes would encourage them to stay engaged. 
• This is consistent with MOPAC victim surveys demonstrating the importance of ease of contact, police actions, follow up & fair treatment.  

• Gaps & inconsistencies in data hinder full oversight & improvement. For example, officer-recorded victim ethnicity was ‘unknown’ in over one-third of cases, & officer-recorded suspect ethnicity was missing for 35% of cases, with self-defined suspect ethnicity missing in 78%.
• Additionally, there were inconsistent outcome codes & suspect details, & reasons for victim withdrawal were not systematically captured.