London's Economy Today - Issue 248 - April 2023

• Inflation still in double digits as doubts arise about persistent price pressures
• Immigrant numbers in London’s workforce have been rising
• Outlook for London’s economy may be less negative

The underlying trend in passenger journeys on London public transport remains marginally upward.

• 230.4 million passenger journeys were registered between 5 February 2023 and 4 March 2023,

• 4.9 million journeys more than in the previous period.

• In the latest period, 89.8 million of all journeys were underground journeys and 140.6 million were bus journeys.

In March, the sentiment of London’s PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) business activity index remained positive, albeit with the business activity PMI index for London private firms decreasing slightly from 56.0 in February to 55.1 in March.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey shows the monthly business trends at private sector firms. Index readings above 50 suggest a month-on-month increase in activity on average across firms, while readings below 50 indicate a decrease.

In March, net expectations for house prices in London for the next three months improved but remained highly negative, according to surveyors. The net balance of house prices expectations in London was -44 in March 2023 up from -49 in February 2023. The net balance index measures the proportion of property surveyors reporting a rise in prices minus those reporting a decline.

• Taking detailed data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), we have built up a picture of how inflation has played out on shelf fronts in London, and compared it with the wider UK.
• The latest numbers suggest that Londoners may have faced price hikes sooner than the rest of the UK, on average. And some of Londoners’ costs, including food, are rising faster than the national average right now.
• Outside the relief from falling global energy prices, many shelf-front price pressures have not yet peaked. For people living in the capital, the worst may yet be to come.

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