London's Economy Today - Issue 243 - November 2022

• UK economy likely heading into a recession
• Inflation grinds higher as energy and food prices surge
• London stock exchange loses out to Paris

• In October the sentiment of London’s PMI new business activity index became negative with the PMI new business index in London decreasing from 51.4 in September to 49.2 in October. An index reading above 50.0 indicates an increase in new orders on average across firms from the previous month.
• In October, net expectations for house prices in London for the next three months became more negative, according to surveyors with the net balance of house prices expectations in London at -58 in October, significantly lower than the balance of -32 in September. The net balance index measures the proportion of property surveyors reporting a rise in prices minus those reporting a decline.
• Consumer confidence in London remained strongly negative in November, if slightly better than in October, with the consumer confidence index in London increasing from -29 in October to -22 in November. The GfK index of consumer confidence reflects people’s views on their financial position and the general economy over the past year and in the next 12 months. A score above zero suggests positive opinions; a score below zero indicates negative sentiment.

The number of economically inactive Londoners (those not seeking and/or unavailable for work) has risen with a particular increase in the number of older workers leaving the labour market since the coronavirus pandemic. There are now around 88,000 more inactive Londoners aged between 50 and 64 years than in early 2020. 

Wave 2 of the ONS’s Over 50s Lifestyle Study suggests that inactivity among older workers in London could be less permanent than previously thought. Over half of Londoners aged 50 to 65 years without a paid job would consider returning to work in the future. However, there are concerns arising from the study:

• An increasing number of older workers are inactive due to poor health and potentially waiting for NHS treatment – many of whom will be unable to work.  This could be compounded if the cost-of-living crisis further erodes peoples’ health.  
• Workplace support and flexibility are important for retaining older workers, but access to support and adjustments remains uneven. 
• More time with work coaches for jobseekers over the age of 50 could help those who do want to return to the workforce.