London's Economy Today - Issue 241 - September 2022

The overview

• Expansionary mini-Budget risks stimulating inflationary economic boom
• Jobs exceed pre-pandemic levels
• London’s businesses continue to prosper, although consumer confidence is worsening

Economic indicators

• In August the sentiment of London’s PMI new business activity index decreased slightly, but remained positive with the PMI new business index in London at 54.1 in August down from 55.6 in July. An index reading above 50.0 indicates an increase in new orders on average across firms from the previous month.
• In August, net expectations for house prices in London for the next three months became more negative, according to surveyors with the net balance of house prices expectations in London at -14 in August, lower than the balance of -1 in July. The net balance index measures the proportion of property surveyors reporting a rise in prices minus those reporting a decline.
• Consumer confidence in London went further negative in September with the consumer confidence index in London decreasing from -22 in August to -30 in September. This is the lowest level since the financial crisis. The GfK index of consumer confidence reflects people’s views on their financial position and the general economy over the past year and in the next 12 months. A score above zero suggests positive opinions; a score below zero indicates negative sentiment.

London's Economy Today supplement: An update on how the cost of living crisis is affecting Londoners

• The cost of living crisis in London threatens to widen existing inequalities, halt the economic recovery from the pandemic and leave many unable to afford necessities.
• This work builds on previous analysis at the start of this year to set out an evidence base on the impact of the cost of living crisis on Londoners.
• More Londoners are reporting themselves to be financially struggling, behind on credit commitments and unable to afford food or essential items.
• The rising price of food is pushing the capital’s underlying inflation above the national average and this will affect the lowest-income Londoners the hardest.

London’s Economy Today data on the Datastore

• The main economic indicators for London are available to download from the Datastore.