Mayor commissions independent economic Brexit analysis for London

08 December 2017

• Nine key sectors to be investigated by experts
• Move comes amid growing confusion around Government studies

The Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, today announced that he has commissioned independent economic analysis of the impact of different Brexit scenarios on Londoners’ jobs and prosperity.

The studies – to be published next month – come amid growing confusion over the Government’s own economic analysis of Brexit.

Sadiq today criticised Theresa May and David Davis, the Brexit secretary, for their ‘chaotic’ approach to Brexit, which he warned was ‘putting jobs and growth at risk’ in London.

The Mayor, who today returns from a six-day trade mission to India and Pakistan, has commissioned analysis from independent economic experts Cambridge Econometrics into the impact that different Brexit scenarios will have on nine different sectors of the economy in London and across the UK.

These include financial and professional services, the construction and the hospitality sectors, and science and technology.

The analysis will specifically look at the Brexit impact for key indicators such as economic output and employment for London and the UK. It will also pay attention to the fact that many people working in other towns and cities across Britain are employed by companies that anchor themselves in London in order to do business globally.

In total, five scenarios will be modelled that illustrate the range of possible outcomes of the UK’s future relationship with the EU. These are:

• A ‘status quo’ scenario where the UK remains part of both of the single market and customs union.

• A soft Brexit scenario where the UK remains part of the single market, but not the customs union.

• Another soft Brexit scenario where the UK remains part of the customs union, but not the single market.

• A hard Brexit scenario in which trade between the UK and the EU falls under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules with a two-year transition period from March 2019; and

• The same hard Brexit scenario but without a two-year transition period.

Sadiq’s approach comes as the Government has failed to keep a consistent line on whether sectoral analyses of the impact on Brexit exist.

In the summer, Brexit secretary David Davis said that the Government had conducted “nearly 60 sector analyses” on the impact of Brexit. Then, last week, he provided the Exiting the European Union Committee and the devolved administrations with 850 pages of analysis that made no forecasts on its impact. Just two days ago, he said that impact assessments did not exist.

The Mayor intends to publish the analysis in full in January, and will use it as the basis for a plan to put to Government to mitigate the worst impacts of Brexit on London’s economy.

The Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan said:

“The Government’s chaotic approach to Brexit is putting jobs and growth at risk.

“It is outrageous that the Government either failed to properly consider the impact of Brexit on Britain’s economy, or are refusing to release their analysis. If it’s the former then I question their competence. if it is the latter then I question whether they have something to hide.

“We need to know the impact of different Brexit scenarios on our economy in order to deliver a Brexit deal that protects jobs and growth.

“I have commissioned this independent analysis to do exactly that for London’s key sectors – and I will publish it in full.

“Once we know the likely impact of different scenarios we will come forward with a plan for the Government to mitigate the worst impacts of Brexit on London’s economy.

“The Government must change course and pursue a Brexit deal that prioritises protecting jobs and our economy.”

Ben Gardiner, Director of Cambridge Econometrics, said: “We are pleased to have been commissioned to undertake the Brexit impact analysis. We firmly believe that modelling exercises such as ours serve a useful purpose by providing a structure to aid thinking and debate, providing some degree of clarity on what is otherwise a very complex issue.”

Notes to editors

The nine sectors that Cambridge Econometrics will investigate are:

* Financial and professional services
* Science and technology
* Digital technologies
* Life sciences & Healthcare
* Creative
* Culture
* Food and drink manufacturing
* Construction
* Hospitality