Traffic modelling data released for the Mayor’s Cycle Superhighways

Traffic modelling data for the Mayor of London’s new cycle superhighway schemes is being released today by TfL as part of City Hall’s commitment to openness and transparency over journey times and their impacts on vehicle traffic.

Summary conclusions:

- The new segregated East-West Superhighway will cause an average of 1 minute 26 seconds’ delay to private motor vehicles travelling along its central London route in the busiest two peak hours.

- The average delay for motorists travelling along the length of the North-South route will be 2 minutes 43 seconds in the busiest two peak hours.

- Average delays at other times will be less.

- Average delays to buses will be less.

- A quarter of the modelled central London journeys in the peak hours will be quicker than now. On many other journeys the delay will be minimal. This is because of extensive re-planning of the traffic lights to reduce the superhighways’ effects on other road users.

- In one particular case on roads approaching central London to the East of Tower Hill, the modelling shows a more significant delay. The Mayor is concerned by the impacts of that delay and has asked his team to review options to try and minimise that delay. Given the complexity of the modelling and the amount of data under consideration, TfL is today extending the consultation period on both schemes by three weeks, to November 9.

The Mayor, Boris Johnson, said: “We must make cycling safer for all types of cyclists – and segregated lanes must be part of the solution. In a congested city like London it is simply not possible to do this without taking some road space. I want to stress two things about these figures and the East-West Superhighway in particular. The first is that the design is by no means set in stone. Some journey times for cars are predicted to be shorter, some would be longer under current plans. We will work hard with all parties to improve the design and to cut these notional delays, and to get the right result for London. The second point is that we would be failing as a city if we were in any way daunted by the difficulties. We can and will produce a fantastic scheme that will benefit the whole city.” The East-West Superhighway will cater for up to 3,000 cyclists an hour, equivalent to the seating capacity of 10 extra trains an hour (five in each direction) on the District and Circle Underground lines which run beneath a large part of the superhighway.

The North-South Superhighway will cater for up to 2,500 cyclists an hour, equivalent to the seating capacity of 34 extra buses an hour (17 in each direction) on the 45 bus route which parallels the superhighway.

The two superhighways together will create 5,076 square metres of new pedestrian space, 21 new signalised pedestrian crossings, and ten existing crossings converted from staggered to straight ahead. On the Victoria Embankment, the wide dividing island between the narrowed road and the cycle lane will create more of a riverside boulevard for pedestrians.

Segregated cycle lanes have been proven to promote economic growth in other world cities, with retailers along their routes reporting sharp growth in customers and spending as the streets become more pleasant.

Motor traffic has fallen by 17 per cent in central London over the last eight years, and by more on the routes chosen for the superhighways. Private motor vehicles account for 20 per cent of all journeys in central London. Bicycles now make up 24 per cent of all rush hour traffic on the roads in central London.

Large numbers of major London businesses have signed up to support the superhighway schemes, including Deloitte, JLL Jones Lang LaSalle, Euromoney, Simon & Schuster, Knight Frank and Barratt Homes.

East-West Superhighway journey time impacts:

Journey times have been modelled for the three central London sections of the route – East Smithfield (just east of Tower Hill) to St Margaret’s Street (Parliament Square); Westminster Bridge to Hyde Park Corner; and Lancaster Gate to the A40 Westway flyover, along Westbourne Terrace. The section through Hyde Park has not been modelled as we are finalising proposals along this stretch and will consult on these later this year. The section on the Westway flyover itself is not being consulted on yet and has not yet been modelled.

Each of the three central London sections has been modelled for both directions of travel in both morning and evening peaks. Of these 12 modelled journeys, seven will be slower, four will be quicker and one will be the same. The average outcome is a delay of 1 min 26 seconds.

Longer journeys in one peak direction are often balanced wholly or partly by quicker journeys in the other peak direction, so the overall travelling time of a driver making a return journey will be less badly affected or will be quicker.

For instance, a westbound journey between East Smithfield (Tower Hill) and St Margaret’s Street (Parliament Square) in the busiest single hour (an hour of the morning peak) will be 19 seconds slower than now. However, the return journey - eastbound in the busiest hour of the evening peak - on the same stretch of road will be nearly four minutes quicker.

The traffic light strategy has also been arranged, wherever possible, to load more of the delay in the opposite direction to the peak flow, in order to minimise the number of motorists affected. Not all delays are modest. Journey times have also been modelled on morning peak hour westbound journeys on The Highway and the A13 east of central London, which are more seriously affected. Other options are being considered to reduce this delay.

On the buses, the route for the East-West Superhighway was chosen because it does not have buses running on nine-tenths of it. Buses do use small parts of the route, however. Journey time impacts have been modelled for 16 journeys in the busiest two peak hours. Of these, six are quicker and only one is substantially slower. For this route - the 453 – we are installing new bus priority measures nearby to help it recover the lost journey time.

North-South Superhighway journey time impacts:

On the North-South Superhighway, which is much shorter, motor vehicle journey times have been modelled for the whole of the segregated section of the route, from Elephant & Castle to Farringdon. The average outcome is a delay of 2 min 43 seconds, with delays again loaded into the direction opposite the peak flow to minimise the number of motorists affected.

Mitigation criteria:

The modelling results do not include only the effects of the superhighways. They also include the effects of 19 other schemes due to be delivered on central and inner London’s roads, in order to give a full picture of the likely traffic position by December 2016. These include the better junctions projects (for instance at Aldgate) due to be completed by 2016.

The modelling makes the assumption that overall traffic in central London will not fall over the next two years. If traffic does fall, as it has done for most of the last decade, delays will be further reduced.

The modelling does not include the effects of all the road management changes which TfL is introducing to mitigate delays caused by the schemes. It does include the replanning of traffic lights but does not include a number of further measures we intend to introduce:

- increased enforcement of existing parking and loading restrictions to keep traffic flowing and disruption to a minimum;

- a freight management strategy, encouraging freight operators to consolidate their loads and shift their activities to off-peak times;

- a travel demand management strategy to help drivers choose the quickest routes.

Experience from pilot schemes suggests these measures can bring substantial further reductions in journey times.