DD2734 London Low-Carbon Market Snapshot Update research

1.1.    The low-carbon and environmental goods and services (LCEGS) sector is the GLA’s metric for the ‘green economy’. This Low-Carbon Market Snapshot update will bring the time series up to date, so that there is a comprehensive dataset to use in measuring the green economy. It will be consistent with the existing time series that the GLA has from 2007-08 to 2022-23; and will cover the period from 2023-24 until 2026-27.
1.2.    The data will be presented at London and sub-regional levels for all years; but will also provide a dataset at London-borough level every two years. The data will cover various areas of interest to the GLA and London boroughs, including forecast of sectoral growth in London over the next three to five years. It will also identify the strongest sub-sectors in London, and opportunities to develop economic activity and jobs in London; and facilitate an understanding of the impact and needs of LCEGS sectors and sub-sectors.
1.3.    The GLA has carried out this research before. It would like to continue the 16-year dataset, to maintain the time series for the green economy dataset. It can then use this data to evaluate progress in delivering the objectives of the London Growth Plan. The research captures relevant activities across the economy, including growing services sectors such as carbon finance, environmental law, and environmental consulting, among activity that supports the shift towards a green economy. This iteration of the research will expand the dataset and methodology; and provide more detailed analysis of additional sectors, such as the circular economy, adaptation and green infrastructure. 
1.4.    The previous iteration of the research was approved in ADD 2508. The work outputs provided insight and intelligence on the LCEGS sector, and its sub-sectors, for use in the development, delivery and evaluation of the post-COVID Green New Deal (GND) recovery mission.
1.5.    ADD 2695 approved spend of £50,000 on the procurement of research services on green economy. However, the procurement exercise was unsuccessful. It received one bid for data analysis services; the bid did not cover the data retrieval costs. Feedback from other interested bidders highlighted that the value of the contract was too low to carry out the scope of analysis requested. 
1.6.    Continuing research on the green economy is considered a priority by wider London government partners, and it would also be unhelpful and contradictory to cease updating this evidence base just when the London Growth Plan has highlighted the importance of the green economy. An additional contribution of £32,000 to this green economy research was secured from Central London Forward to increase the value of the research tender. 
1.7.    In the interim, a light-touch analysis, with a value of £10,000, was carried out in 2024 to bring the dataset up to date, using the existing methodology. 
1.8.    The GLA does not have internal capacity or access to data to carry out LCEGS analysis. Therefore, this work needs to be procured externally.
1.9.    The GLA will lead the procurement and management of the contract. The research specification will be developed in consultation with representatives from GLA Environment and Skills policy teams; GLA Economics; London boroughs; sub-regional partnerships; and London Councils. Decisions will be taken in consultation with a technical advisory group, which will include representatives of those teams. This collaborative approach will ensure that research is relevant to the wider GLA and its priorities, while fostering collaboration with London boroughs and preventing duplication of effort and inconsistency in measuring the sector.
1.10.    Project outputs include: 
•    updated London datasets – 2023-24
•    updated London datasets – 2024-25
•    updated London datasets – 2025-26
•    updated London datasets – 2026-27
•    growth forecasts and opportunities
•    analysis of sub-sectors and supply chains
•    export and trade datasets
•    new LCEGS sub-sector datasets
•    comparisons with other sectors from London’s economy, quantified 
•    a list of selected businesses for developing a cleantech network
•    national and regional mapping to identify supply-chain opportunities
•    backwards comparison of the datasets using the new approach.
1.11.    These deeper analysis outputs will be covered by this £124,000 tender. These outputs will enable the GLA and its partners to commission any future updates if more specialised output is required. 
 

2.1.    The GLA wants to update the dataset with data for the period from 2023-24 to 2026-27, to continue the 16-year dataset for tracking the green economy. It will use this data to evaluate the impact of the GND mission.
2.2.    The first report, covering 2023-24, would be published by summer 2025. The data (including the sector’s market value; employment numbers; historic and forecasted growth rates; and information on supply chains) will inform our work on, for example, green jobs and skills, the London Growth Plan, the non-residential emissions mandate; and wider policy and programme design.
 

3.1.    Under section 149 of the Equality Act 2010, the Mayor and GLA are subject to the public sector equality duty and must have due regard to the need to:
•    eliminate unlawful discrimination, harassment and victimisation
•    advance equality of opportunity between people who share a relevant protected characteristic and those who do not
•    foster good relations between people who share a relevant protected characteristic and those who do not.
3.2.    The “protected characteristics” are age, disability, gender reassignment, pregnancy and maternity, race, religion or belief, sex, sexual orientation and marriage/civil partnership status. The duty involves having appropriate regard to these matters as they apply in the circumstances, including having regard to the need to: remove or minimise any disadvantage suffered by those who share or are connected to a protected characteristic; take steps to meet the different needs of such people; and encourage them to participate in public life or in any other activity where their participation is disproportionately low. This can involve treating people with a protected characteristic more favourably than those without one.
3.3.    This project does not have negative equalities impacts, as it is monitoring research. It continues the research that the GLA has carried out before, and no negative impacts have been observed.
3.4.    The research will provide a more detailed insight into the LCEGS sector and priority sub-sectors. It will provide intelligence and insights to develop programmes and projects to help grow the green economy, and may inform the development of skills and employment programmes to help Londoners with protected characteristics secure jobs in this growing sector. It will also generate jobs for Londoners of all backgrounds and market opportunities for London’s businesses, whilst helping to solve the environmental challenges that London and other cities are facing.
 

Risks
4.1.    There is low risk attached to the proposal, as it is data-driven and evidence-based research.
4.2.    The table below covers research-level risks:

Links to Mayoral strategies and priorities
4.3.    The transition to a low-carbon circular economy is an integral part of several GLA’s strategies and plans, including the London Environment Strategy (LES) and the Mayor’s Economic Development Strategy (EDS). Alongside this, the recently published London Growth Plan identifies climate and nature science as important growth sectors, and recognises the wider opportunities within the green economy for jobs and skills; and the research will also support delivery of relevant recommendations from the London Climate Resilience Review.  
4.4.    The transition to a low-carbon circular economy is delivered by environmental policies and programmes targeting both the supply- and demand-side of the green economy. For example, the LES supports the creation of demand by setting a strong environmental policy framework. The EDS and Growth Plan stimulate the supply-side to meet this demand by supporting businesses and developing skills for workers, so that they are aware of, and competitive in, this market. The new Growth Plan will continue to look at the skills system in London through an associated inclusive talent strategy, and support growth of priority sectors in London. It will capture green skills and green economy, which LCEGS research helps to measure. 
4.5.    A target was set as part of London’s green recovery from the pandemic to double the value of the green economy by 2030 (measured by the value of LCEGS sales). A regularly updated dataset is critical to assess progress against this target.
GDPR, conflicts of interest and procurement
4.6.    The project will not be processing any sensitive personal data.
4.7.    There are no conflicts of interest to declare from any officers involved in the drafting or clearance of this decision form.
4.8.    Procurement will be carried out by TfL procurement in accordance with the requirements of the GLA’s Contracts and Funding Code.
 

5.1.    Approval is requested for the GLA’s receipt of £32,000 from Central London Forward to support the delivery of the LCEGS research. There is agreement from the funder that this research will be split across financial years.   
5.2.    Approval is requested for fund transfers, totalling £42,000 between GLA teams to support the delivery of the LCEGS research. This is in addition to the £32,000 grant funding highlighted in 5.1: 
•    £21,000 from the GLA Climate Mitigation team to the Sustainability and Strategy team
•    £11,000 from the GLA Economics team to the Sustainability and Strategy team
•    £10,000 from the GLA Economic Development team to the Sustainability and Strategy team
5.3.    Additionally, £50,000 will be spent from the Sustainability and Strategy team’s budget.
5.4.    The total funding of £124,000 will be paid to the appointed supplier following a tender exercise. The split of payments is expected to be: 
•    £84,000 in 2025-26
•    £20,000 in 2026-27
•    £20,000 in 2027-28.
5.5.    It is important to note that the 2025-26 budget plan has not yet been approved and is therefore subject to change.
 

6.1.    The foregoing sections of this report indicate that the decisions sought concern the exercise of the GLA’s general powers, falling within the GLA’s statutory powers to do such things considered to further or that are facilitative of, or conducive or incidental to, the promotion of the improvement of the environment in Greater London. In formulating the proposals in respect of which a decision is sought, officers must comply with the GLA’s related statutory duties to: 
•    pay due regard to the principle that there should be equality of opportunity for all people
•    consider how the proposals will promote the improvement of health of persons, health inequalities between persons and to contribute towards the achievement of sustainable development in the UK
•    consult with appropriate bodies.
6.2.    In taking any decisions sought, the Director must have due regard to the Public Sector Equality Duty – namely the need to eliminate discrimination, harassment, victimisation and any other conduct prohibited by the Equality Act 2010; and to advance equality of opportunity, and foster good relations, between persons who share a relevant protected characteristic (race, disability, sex, age, sexual orientation, religion) and persons who do not (section 149 of the Equality Act 2010). To this end, the Director should have particular regard to section 3 (above) of this report.
6.3.    If the Director makes the decisions sought, officers must ensure that:
•    no reliance is placed on the Central London Forward funding until a legally binding commitment to has been secured, and they are satisfied that the GLA can comply with any conditions of its award
•    the services, suppliers or works required are procured in liaison with TfL Procurement in accordance with the Contracts and Funding Code and appropriate contract documentation is put in place between and executed by the GLA and contractors before commencement of those services.  
 

7.1.    Research will be delivered in stages as it is a three-year research project. The first high-level report will be delivered by summer 2025. The subsequent detailed analysis will be delivered in autumn 2025. The final iteration of the LCEGS data for London will be delivered in 2027.