FOI - Data to support the benefits of expansion of the ULEZ [Sep 2023]

You request

1. Please advise on the Mayor’s scientifically supported basis of the benefits for extending the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) into Bexley.
2. Advise which Boroughs you are specifically referring to regarding not meeting legal and safe levels of pollution (which I believe does not include Bexley) and provide factual data to support your comments.
3. Provide factual data to support your comments that air pollution can lead to stunted lungs in children and a higher risk of dementia as rationale for extending the ULEZ to outer London.
4. Advise of what the pollution levels are currently being experienced on the Underground, supported by factual data for review and consideration.
5. Explain the amount of emissions that the remaining diesel Black Cabs are generating and how Transport for London (TfL) are proposing to clean this up.
6. Provide factual data supporting this percentage with details of compliant and non-compliant vehicles for each individual outer London borough. 
7. Provide factual substantiation of this claim for 4,000 deaths per year. 
8. Advise how TfL propose to address the lack of infrastructure if they are expecting people who are unable to afford to buy a new car to use public transport.

Our response 

Question 1

The evidence base and expected outcomes and impacts of the proposals to expand the ULEZ London-wide were set out in the key consultation documents, which are available on TfL’s consultation page. 

The most relevant document is titled ‘Our proposals to help improve air quality tackle the climate emergency and reduce congestion by expanding the ULEZ London-wide and other measures’.

Section 6 of this document sets out the expected impacts of the London-wide ULEZ on emissions and concentrations of key pollutants in 2023 compared to what they would be without the London-wide ULEZ. 

The air quality modelling was undertaken by Imperial College London working with TfL in order to assess the air quality impacts the ULEZ expansion could have. The method and data used are described in Appendix C. Borough-level impacts are set out in Appendix D. 

Question 2

The most recent air quality modelling produced by the GLA and TfL is the London Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (LAEI) 2019.

This is a public dataset that is available to download via the London Datastore.

The published LAEI Summary Note summarises air quality trends in London for 2013, 2016 and 2019, as well as forecast trends for 2025 and 2030. 

As noted on page 6, the World Health Organization (WHO) updated its recommended 
guidelines for air pollutants in 2021. The recommended annual average concentration 
guidelines for NO2 and PM2.5 are now 10 ug/m3 and 5 ug/m3, respectively. 

Pages 14 to 15 and 18 to 20 show maps of NO2 and PM2.5 concentrations across London. The explanatory text accompanying these maps shows that no area of London met the WHO guidelines for these pollutants in 2019, and no area of London is forecast to meet the WHO guidelines by 2030 under the policies included in the modelling. The 2025 and 2030 air quality forecasts do not include the expansion of the ULEZ to outer London on 29 August 2023.

The forecasts were commissioned prior to the Mayor’s decision being taken to further expand the ULEZ. Therefore, the forecasts do not account for the effects of the ULEZ expansion, which is anticipated will lead to a greater reductions in emissions. 

Question 3

Studies have long shown the many adverse health issues associated with elevated pollution levels. In 2021, the WHO published new global air quality guidelines to protect human health, updating its 2005 guidelines on the basis of a systematic review of the latest scientific evidence of how air pollution damages human health.

A 2022 authoritative evidence review continued to show the health impacts of traffic pollution, especially asthma in both children and adults. The Committee on the Medical Effects of Air Pollutants (COMEAP), an independent body that advises the UK government on the health effects of air pollution, regularly reports on new evidence emerging in this field.
 
In April 2023, the Environmental Research Group, Imperial College London, published an 
evidence summary reviewing key studies published on the links between air pollution and ill health since the 2016 publication of the Royal College of Physicians report, 'Every breath we take: the lifelong impact of air pollution'.

This new review, commissioned by the GLA, highlighted the serious and life-limiting risks of air pollution on physical and mental health across the life course, with adverse health effects seen in relatively low air pollution environments, below the levels of pollution experienced in London. 

Question 4

This information is publicly available.

The GLA recently answered a similar request for information that is published here.

Question 5

The London Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (LAEI) 2019 contains the most recent modelling of emissions of key pollutants in London by source type. This is a public dataset and includes emissions estimates of key pollutants (NOx, PM10, PM2.5 and CO2) by source type (for example, cars, taxis, buses, aviation, rail, construction, etc) for the base year 2019. 

The spreadsheet entitled ‘Emissions – Data- Excel' files provides the emissions data by source and by borough and the file ‘Emissions- Data-GIS' provides mapped emissions data by source. 

You can access this data by downloading the spreadsheet entitled ‘Emissions – Data- Excel’ on the London Datastore.

The LAEI 2019 dataset shows that taxis accounted for 1.9 per cent of NOx emissions in London in 2019 whilst cars accounted for 18.5 per cent of NOx emissions in London. 

TfL’s policies to reduce emissions from London-licensed Black Cabs are set out on its website.

Question 6

TfL estimates that 9 in 10 cars seen driving in outer London on an average day meet the ULEZ standards. This figure includes all vehicles seen driving in the zone, regardless of where they are registered. More information about how TfL measures compliance is available on its website.

Question 7

In 2021, the GLA commissioned research from the Environmental Research Group (ERG) at Imperial College London to quantify the health burden of air pollution in London. This research found that in 2019, in Greater London, 61,800 to 70,200 life years lost (the equivalent of between 3,600 to 4,100 attributable deaths) were estimated to be attributable to anthropogenic fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), assuming health effects exist even at very low levels. 

The full report, which includes a description of the method and data sources used, is available on the GLA website. 

Question 8

Improving public transport in outer London is absolutely central to the Mayor’s Transport 
Strategy and to enabling people to travel more sustainably. Already, more than 96 per cent of Londoners live within 400m of the bus network, the London Overground network has expanded including a new station at Barking Riverside and the Elizabeth Line is transforming public transport connectivity directly, including in outer London, and through new interchanges along its length.

TfL is also consulting on improving and expanding the bus network in outer London and the Mayor has announced plans for the Superloop – a network of limited-stop express bus routes to connect outer London town centres, railway stations, hospitals and transport hubs. 

Any net revenue raised by the ULEZ is reinvested into running and improving London’s 
transport network, such as expanding bus routes in outer London.

If you have any further questions relating to this matter, please contact us, quoting 
reference MGLA060923-5803.