EIR - Air pollution statistics [Oct 2022]

Your request 

You publish figures of attributable premature deaths, by borough, due to multi air pollution.

1. What evidence do you have that these deaths are solely due to air pollution as claimed?

2. Will you or have you published the supporting data?

3. What evidence do you have of air pollution data and hot spots therein and causality in the deaths claimed above?

4. What are the pollution statistics prior to the current Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) within the North and South Circular Roads.

5. What are they now and by how much have they decreased or changed as a percentage?

6. What are the reduced deaths now due to reduced air pollution and is there a causal link demonstrable? Where is this evidence published if there is indeed a reduction?

7. On what reasonable basis is ULEZ being extended to approximately the M25 where the density of population is less considerably less than the current area?

8. Where is the supporting evidence that the claimed reduction in pollution in the denser current ULEZ urban area can be extrapolated into the less dense outer areas with the same degree of reduction of polluted air?

9. Where is the supporting evidence for the claimed benefits in expanding ULEZ published?

10. Where are the published data, studies and conclusions with peer reviews for the
expansion justification?

11. Will there be a scrappage scheme?

Our response

Please find below the information we hold within the scope of your request:

Questions 1-3

In January 2021 the GLA published a report commissioned from Imperial College London’s Environmental Research Group, one of the leading academic bodies providing air quality information and research in the UK. 

The full report is published on the GLA website. The report includes a detailed description of the method used to quantify the number of life years lost (and equivalent deaths) attributable to anthropogenic air pollution (specifically fine particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide). 

Questions 4-5

London has one of the most comprehensive air quality monitoring networks of any global city and air quality is constantly monitored at over 150 locations. These sites are operated and funded by the London boroughs, Transport for London (TfL) and Heathrow Airport.

A number of these monitoring sites are included in the national Automatic Urban and Rural Network (AURN), which is the main network used for compliance reporting against the Ambient Air Quality Directives. 

All data from the reference air quality monitors in London are publicly available on either the London Air or Air Quality England websites, depending on which data manager the borough subscribes to. 

To expand London’s monitoring capacity, the Mayor piloted and recently expanded the 
Breathe London low-cost sensor network. There are now over 350 active sensors in the network, with many located near priority locations like schools and hospitals. Data from the Breathe London network is also publicly available.

The websites above include the monitor locations and dates they have been running as well as all the pollution concentration data which can be freely downloaded.

The GLA regularly reports on air quality trends in London, including evaluating the impact of the ULEZ on London’s air quality. This reporting uses data from the city’s air quality monitoring network to analyse the long term trends in pollution concentrations as well as estimating the impacts of the scheme.

The most recent modelling is the London Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (LAEI) 2019. The LAEI summary note includes maps of pollution levels across the city.

You can read the most recent report on the impacts of the ULEZ here and find links to the previous reports within.

Six months on from the ULEZ expansion and over a year on from the enforcement of tighter Low Emission Zone (LEZ) standards for heavy vehicles the data indicate that these schemes are having a significant impact on the number of older, more 
polluting vehicles seen driving in London and the levels of harmful pollution Londoners are exposed to.

Question 6

There is a well established and ever-growing body of scientific evidence showing links
between exposure to air pollution and a number of adverse health effects, including 
premature death. The UK’s Committee on the Medical Effects of Air Pollutants (COMEAP) provides independent advice to government departments and agencies on how air pollution impacts on health. COMEAP has published a number of reports that review the body of complex scientific evidence and provide recommendations on the role of air pollution in causing adverse health outcomes and (where possible) quantification of the health impacts. 

For mortality, COMEAP, and other organisations such as the World Health Organization (WHO), consider the evidence strong enough to infer a causal relationship with air pollution. You can read these reports on the COMEAP website and the 2021 update of the WHO Air Quality Guidelines.

The GLA has not undertaken or commissioned any additional research on these points. 

However, the expected impact of the Mayor’s air quality policies was assessed in the  Imperial College report previously mentioned. Using COMEAP’s recommendations for 
quantification, the report found that London’s population would gain around 6.1 million life years if air pollution concentrations improved as expected under the Mayor’s air quality policies as set out in the London Environment Strategy, which include the introduction and recent expansion of the ULEZ. Imperial College’s analysis also shows that without adoption of the Mayor’s air quality policies and other general air pollution trends, a child would lose 7 to 11 months life expectancy due to air pollution. Further detail on this analysis is set out in the report.

Questions 7-10

Despite world leading progress in reducing emissions from transport and improving air 
quality, all areas of London still exceed the WHO guidelines for air quality. For this reason, the Mayor recently asked TfL to run a consultation on proposals to expand the ULEZ London-wide in 2023. The consultation website included a number of documents that set out the rationale for further expanding the ULEZ as well as the expected impacts of doing so.

These documents are still available to download from the consultation website under 
the 'Key Documents' heading. 

Question 11

No decision has been made on these proposals. TfL is now collating and analysing all 
responses to the consultation and then will prepare a report to the Mayor identifying key issues and themes, and any recommended modifications to the proposals in light of responses.

The Mayor will make a decision about whether to proceed with these proposals, with or without modifications, after considering this report.

Subject to his final decision on the proposals, the Mayor is committed to helping charities, small businesses, disabled people and Londoners on lower incomes adapt to a potential London-wide ULEZ through the biggest scrappage scheme feasible.

If you have any further questions relating to this matter, please contact us, quoting 
reference MGLA130922-9152.