EIR - ULEZ Basis for 4,000 premature deaths [Sep 2023]

Your request 

Recently you have publicly claimed that 4,000 Londoners die prematurely each year because of the alleged lack of clean air. As a taxpayer, who pays for your salary, I would like to know what you base this claim on? For example, could you please answer the following question:

1. Is this conclusion from a research done by reputable academic professors, who stay with their names and reputation behind it?
2. Has this research been published in an academic peer reviewed journal, which is the only guarantee for the quality of these findings?
3. What is the statistical error of the estimate of 4,000 premature deaths? What is its t-statistics?
4. On what data set is this conclusion based? In order to produce a reliable conclusion of this magnitude, one needs a panel data set that covers at least a million of Londoners over many years. Does the data set satisfy these requirements?
5. Is the data set freely available, so that other researchers can replicate and verify the claim about 4,000 premature deaths, and its statistical significance?

Our response

In 2021, the GLA commissioned research from the Environmental Research Group (ERG) at Imperial College London to quantify the health burden of air pollution in London. This research found that in 2019, in Greater London, 61,800 to 70,200 life years lost (the equivalent of between 3,600 to 4,100 attributable deaths) were estimated to be attributable to anthropogenic fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), assuming health effects exist even at very low levels. The report has not been published in an academic peer reviewed journal.

The researchers used the latest (2018) Committee on the Medical Effects of Air Pollutants (COMEAP) recommended methodology for calculating impacts of anthropogenic PM2.5 and NO2: Nitrogen dioxide: effects on mortality - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) which built on COMEAP’s 2010 recommendations.

COMEAP is a national expert Committee advising Government on the health effects of air pollution. Their recommendations for quantification are used in Government cost-benefit analysis of policies to reduce air pollution. Using the same method, the UK government estimates that there are roughly 28,000-36,000 premature deaths linked to air pollution every year across the country. Similar calculations of the mortality burden attributable to air pollution can be found elsewhere, including by the former Public Health England for estimating the mortality burden of PM2.5 in local authorities in the UK: PHE-CRCE-010 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

COMEAP’s recommendations were developed through discussions in the Committee’s longstanding Subgroup on the quantification of air pollution risks in the UK (QUARK) and agreed by the full COMEAP Committee.

The full report, which includes a description of the method and data sources used, is available on the GLA website: Health burden of air pollution in London | London City Hall