In the Greater London Authority Economics team we provide the latest economic data for London and interpret how this may affect policy. This includes analysis of recent developments in London’s economy and forecasts for the next couple of years.
Monitoring London's economy
How we monitor London’s economy
We frequently release publications on the state of London’s economy. We have two regular publications (London’s Economy Today and London’s Economic Outlook) as well as our individual publications.
All our publications include analysis of the latest economic developments and data, and our interpretations of how this may affect London and policy for the capital.
Our latest publications are outlined below.
London’s Economy Today (LET)
LET is published at the end of every month. Each issue features the most up-to-date information and analysis on the state of London’s economy. It features a wide range of London and UK economic indicators, including information on employment, house prices and consumer confidence.
Many of these data indicators are available for download on the London Datastore.
London’s Economic Outlook (LEO)
LEO is published twice a year, in the spring and autumn. Each issue provides an overview of recent economic developments in London, the UK and world economies. It outlines our latest forecasts for London’s economy and employment, and possible risks that may affect these forecasts.
Our Autumn 2017 forecast suggests that:
- London’s Gross Value Added (GVA) growth rate is forecast to be 2.1 per cent in 2017. The growth rate is expected to slow slightly to 1.8 per cent in 2018, before picking up to 2.6 per cent in 2019.
- London is forecast to see increases in the number of workforce jobs in 2017, 2018 and 2019.
- London’s household income and spending are both forecast to increase over the next three years, albeit at slower rates than for 2016.
The data that sits behind the forecast is available to download from the Datastore.
Fiscal devolution for London
GLA Economics has produced five working papers (80-84) examining options for greater fiscal devolution to inform the London Finance Commission's work.
The historic performance of the GLA's economic forecast
Current Issues Note 49 looks at the accuracy of previous GLA Economics’ forecasts for the growth of total Gross Value Added, total employment, household expenditure and household income.
Revisions to the “historic data” had a significant impact on the performance of GLA Economics’ forecasts but nevertheless performed comparably with other forecasts produced of the London economy.
The note outlines some areas for improvement in the forecasting process in light of the evolving nature and understanding of London’s economy.
Modelling real quarterly GVA data for London
- As of yet no official measure of quarterly growth in London’s economy on either a nominal or real measure exists. At the annual level nominal GVA data is available (with a lag), but real GVA data remains experimental in nature and is not classified as a national statistic.
- GLA Economics has therefore undertaken analysis to calculate this data at the London level.
- Current issues note 50 sets out the methodology that has been used for this analysis and first estimates of quarterly real GVA for London.
London and Europe - Facts and figures
On 23 June 2016 the UK voted to leave the EU. Since then there has been a high demand for data on various aspects of London’s relationship with both the rest of the UK and Europe in light of the upcoming Article 50 negotiations.
Current Issues Note 51 sets out to summarise some of the extensive selection of data and surveys that cover this topic, helping to enlighten debate and decision making.
A description of London's economy
The purpose of Working Paper 85 is to describe the structure and make-up of London’s economy in different parts of the capital.
GVA per workforce job estimates for London
Working Paper 87 provides estimates of GVA per workforce job for London, the regions and the UK, by industry section and division, through to 2015.
Regional, sub-regional & local GVA estimates for London 1997-2015
Current Issues Note 52 presents the findings for London from the main GVA release (using the income approach) and then outlines the results from the experimental real GVA data.
Transport expenditure in London
Current Issues Note 54 sets out the rationale for investing in transport infrastructure and presents data on the current and planned levels of transport expenditure, with an emphasis on London.
GVA in London's local authorities
Current Issues Note 55 looks at GVA in London's local authorities in a London and UK context, 1997-2015.
Demand and supply for accessible hotel rooms in London
Given the need to understand better the potential room requirements for disabled visitors, Working Paper 90 presents projections of the demand and supply of accessible hotel rooms in London up to 2041.
An analysis of London's exports
Working Paper 91 shows that in 2015 London exported £131.1 billion of goods and services. This was up from £126.4 billion in 2011. More than three-quarters (77 per cent) of this was exports of services.
Regional, sub-regional & local GVA estimates for London 1997-2016
Current Issues Note 57 shows that: In 2016, London’s total nominal GVA (as measured by GVA (I)) was under £396 billion (up 4.4 per cent on 2015). This represented 22.7 per cent of the UK’s total GVA (I) in 2016, up from 22.5 per cent in 2015 and 18.5 per cent when going even further back to 1997.