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Press Release Detailed analysis of real crime trends in London The Greater London Authority today released the following detailed analysis of crime trends in London following the release of the Metropolitan Police's crime figures for 2007. The Mayor of London, Ken Livingstone, said: ‘This is the fifth year running that we have seen crime in London fall. Crime has fallen by 19 per cent with the fall in crime accelerating sharply. Last years 6.1 per cent fall in crime was the highest yet. The average annual fall in crime in London in the last three years has been 5.5 per cent. 'The longer term trends released today show how not only all crimes but the most serious crimes in London are falling. 'Murders are down by 28 per cent since 2003 - from 222 to 160. Rape is down 25 per cent in five years. Gun crime and knife enabled crime are both 22 per cent down in the same period. Robbery is down 23 per cent. 'This shows the outstanding work being done by the Metropolitan police 'A crime wave started in London in the mid-1990s due to the reduction of police numbers. The substantial year on year increases in police numbers I have introduced since 2000 are reducing crime, in many cases sharply. 'Whilst crime and violence in London is falling there is a resistant problem of gang-related knife and gun crime involving young people which is a very serious issue and needs to be tackled in no uncertain terms. 'But these long term figures for crime are good news for Londoners.' Trends Graph of total crime figures in London from 1999 to 2007 GIF only Overall crime in London is falling substantially and the rate of decline is accelerating. Crime in London fell for the fifth consecutive year in 2007. Crime fell by 2.2 per cent in 2003, 1.9 per cent, in 2004, 4.4 per cent in 2006, and 6.1 per cent in 2007. Particularly important is the decline in the most serious crimes. Murder is down by 28 per cent since 2003. The number of murders fell from 222 in 2003, to 194 in 2004, to 178 in 2005, to 172 in 2006, to 160 in 2007. Rape is down 25 per cent since its peak in 2002. There was a sharp fall in knife enabled crime in 2007 – down 13 per cent. Overall, knife crime has fallen by 18 per cent since its peak in 2004. In contrast to knife enabled crime, gun enabled crime rose in 2007 by 4 per cent. However the overall fall in gun crime since its peak in 2002 is 22 per cent. Grievous bodily harm fell by 12 per cent last year. A detailed analysis of crimes follows. Long term crime trends The figures issued by the Metropolitan Police today are for calendar years – that is January to December. In contrast statistics before 1999 are issued on a financial year basis – that is April to April. This is why the absolute figures in the long term numbers in this section differ slightly from the chronological ones - that is January to December. In all cases the trends are exactly the same. Analysis of the trends shows that a huge crime wave began to unfold in London in the mid 1990s – almost certainly due to the fact that police numbers were falling. The increase in police numbers introduced from 2000 onwards broke the back of this crime wave and crime started to fall from 2002. The fall in crime is now substantial. This can be seen clearly in the most serious crimes. Murder and rape have been taken here as examples, as exceptionally serious crimes which have not been subject to changes in definition. Murder rose dramatically from 1996 to 2003 - nearly doubling from 120 to over 200. Since 2003 murder has fallen sharply. Graph of murder figures in London from 1996 to 2007 GIF only Rape also rose very sharply from 1996 to 2002 - more than doubling from slightly over 1,200 to 2,700. Since 2002 rape has fallen substantially. Graph of murder figures in London from 1992 to 2007 GIF only Trends in last period It is clear that the trends in crime since 1999, which are available on a chronological year basis with the figures for 2007 released today, fit fully within the above framework. The increase in police numbers started with the Mayor’s first budget in 2001– approximately 1,000 police a year were added. Total crime then started to fall from 2002 with the rate of decline increasing. This fall in total crime has been illustrated in the first graph in this note. This reduction started with the less serious crimes and then began to affect the most serious. This can be seen in the statistics for individual crimes in this period. The figures given in these graphs are for chronological years. Murder continued to rise until 2003 and then began to fall sharply. The decline in the murder rate from the peak to 2007 is 28 per cent. Graph of murder figures in London from 1999 to 2007 GIF only Gun enabled crime reached its peak in 2002 and then began to fall. The decline in gun crime from the peak is 22 per cent. There was a 4 per cent increase in gun crime in 2007, the only rise in major categories of crime, but the overall declining trend since 2002 is clear. Graph of gun-enabled crime figures in London from 1999 to 2007 GIF only Data for knife enabled crime is only available from 2003. Knife enabled crime reached its peak in 2004 and only fell slightly in 2005 and 2006. There was a sharp fall in knife enabled crime in 2007 of 13 per cent. Knife crime is now down 18 per cent since 2004 peak. Graph of knife-enabled crime figures in London from 2003 to 2007 GIF only Rape reached its peak in 2002 and has fallen very significantly. The decline in rape last year was particularly sharp – down 15 per cent. Graph of rape figures in London from 1999 to 2007 GIF only Grievous Bodily Harm began to decline in 2000 but there was a worsening of the situation from 2003 to 2005. The reduction in Grievous Bodily Harm then resumed in 2006 and continued to fall in 2007. Grevious bodily harm fell by 12 per cent in 2007 and is now down 21 per cent from its peak. Graph of grevious bodily harm crime figures in London from 1999 to 2007 GIF only Domestic violence proved one of the most intractable crimes. It did not start to fall until 2005. Progress was however made in 2006 and 2007 and the overall fall in that period was 16 per cent. Graph of domestic violence crime figures in London from 1999 to 2007 GIF only The fall in racist crime has been continuous since 2000. Racist crime has now fallen by a total of 55 per cent since 2000. Graph of racist crime figures in London from 1999 to 2007 GIF only Burglary has fallen more or less relentlessly since 2000. The decline since the peak is 23 per cent. Graph of burglary figures in London from 1999 to 2007 GIF only Motor vehicle crime peaked in 2002 and has since fallen continuously. Motor vehicle crime is now down 30 per cent since 2002. Graph of motor vehicle crime figures in London from 1999 to 2007 GIF only Areas still of resistant crime The overall pattern of crime, that it is substantially falling, is therefore clear. However it would evidently be false to claim that there are no problem areas. In particular, of course, there is a specific problem of among young people highlighted by the 26 murders of young people last year. The other area of current concern is robbery. This fell very sharply from 2002 to 2004, but it then rose again in 2005 and 2006. There was a sharp fall in robbery last year, of 15 per cent, but only taking it back to the 2004 level. Robbery is 23 per cent down from its 2001 peak. Graph of robbery figures in London from 1999 to 2007 GIF only Conclusion The real pattern of crime in London is therefore the following. Crime is falling substantially. Crime is falling not only in areas such as motor vehicles but also in the most serious crimes such as murder. The problem of youth murders is intractable and serious but stands out against a clear pattern of substantial crime reduction in almost all other areas. Claims such that the fall in crime is due merely to underreporting are false. To take the most serious crime of all, murder, it completely implausible that there are any significant number of unreported murders, but murder has fallen by 28 per cent since 2003. It is also not true that crime is falling only amongst non-serious crimes. It is quite clear crime is falling very significantly in the categories of the most serious crimes such as murder, gun and knife crime, rape, and grievous bodily harm. Notes to Editors All data is from the Metropolitan Police figures released today, except for the long term trends on murder and rape since 1996 which is from data previously published for financial years (April to April) by the Metropolitan police. In those two graphs the figure extrapolated for the financial year 2006-07 assume the same change in crime as for the chronological (January-December) year 2007. For media queries please contact Hasina Momtaz on 020 7983 4064 or Rebecca Miller on 020 7983 4754 (numbers not for publication)
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