Understanding our climate

Climate change is projected to bring us hotter drier summers, warmer wetter winters, heavier rainfall and rising sea levels.

The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP), established in 1997, provides information to help organisations adapt to current and projected changes in climate. This includes making available climate information. The latest set of climate information, UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) were commissioned by Defra and delivered by a consortium of organisations including the UK Met Office and UKCIP. The information provided is intended to inform decision and policy making in addressing the impacts and risks associated with a changing climate. Included are historical climate observations, and climate projections for the period up to 2100 for the UK and marine and coastal projections for waters surrounding the UK. The UK Climate Projections are based on a new methodology designed by the UK Met Office which allows a measure of the uncertainty in future climate projections to be included in the information.

Understanding uncertainty in projections of future climate is key to assessing likely impacts and required adaptation options. UKCP09 is the fifth generation of climate change information to be produced for the UK. They reflect the evolution of the scientific knowledge, available computer power and the needs of those who use the climate information. Uncertainty has been addressed by providing probabilistic projections that reflect the strength of evidence supporting the projected changes. As part of the uncertainty, the Projections provide three sets of possible projections, one for each of three greenhouse gas emission scenarios: labelled ‘high’, ‘medium’ and ‘low’ within UKCP09. Although the new projections incorporate a much deeper exploration of the associated known uncertainty, further uncertainties, including those associated with potential climate feedbacks and rapid or even sudden changes in climate are possible.

The climate and adaptation information available from UKCIP covers all of the UK and is provided for 25km grid squares and aggregated regions (administrative regions and river basins).

UKCIP is a member of the London Climate Change Partnership and together they continue to work to understand what the projected changes in climate will mean for London, the people who live here and its economy.

For further information, please visit the UKCIP website.